Axiom Insights

At 8 p.m. Eastern tomorrow night, Donald Trump's ultimatum to Iran expires. The president has threatened to destroy every power plant and bridge in the country if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by then. Tehran has rejected the 45-day ceasefire proposal floating through Omani intermediaries. WTI settled at $112.41 on Monday. The S&P 500, somehow, is up four straight sessions and posted its best weekly gain in four months — +3.4% on the S&P, +4.4% on the Nasdaq — over a holiday-shortened week in which the Strait has now been effectively closed for 37 consecutive days.

That juxtaposition — a war escalating toward a genuine inflection point while equities bounce off technical lows — is either the market telling you something important, or the market being wrong. We think it is mostly the former, with a meaningful tail of the latter.

Here is what actually happened this week, what it means for the five pillars, and where we are adding conviction versus trimming exposure.

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The Strait Is the Only Variable That Matters Right Now

Let's be precise about the stakes. The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile-wide seaway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally transits. Since it went dark on March 2, the IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent initially spiked past $120 before strategic reserve releases and temporary Russian and Iranian sanctions waivers — a combined 400 million barrels from the biggest SPR draw on record — provided enough artificial breathing room to push prices back toward the $108–$113 range where they trade today.

The breathing room is nearly exhausted. Industry executives and analysts have warned that the window to avoid a materially worse shock closes around mid-April. Trump knows this; the escalating rhetoric — threatening to level Iranian power plants and bridges by Tuesday night — is a function of that timeline as much as any negotiating posture. Iran has publicly rejected temporary ceasefire terms. Israel is skeptical any deal is achievable. The ceasefire proposal that briefly sent equities and oil lurching in opposite directions on Monday is, per every credible read of the room, not good enough for either side.

What does this mean for Pillar 2 — Power Infrastructure and Nuclear? It strengthens it unambiguously. VST and CEG are among the handful of S&P 500 names making new 52-week highs this week, alongside utility peers who are benefiting from exactly the dynamic we have argued for since the fund's inception: a world where reliable, domestic, non-hydrocarbon baseload power is no longer a utility-sector afterthought but a strategic national asset. The Europeans are learning this the hard way. Dutch TTF gas benchmarks nearly doubled to over €60/MWh by mid-March; UK inflation is now expected to breach 5% this year. That pain is the advertisement for nuclear energy that the industry spent a decade trying and failing to place.

We are not trimming VST or CEG. The thesis is being validated in real time at a speed that exceeds our original underwriting assumptions.

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Coinbase Just Got a Federal Badge. The CLARITY Act Is on the Clock.

The most consequential event of the week for this fund had nothing to do with oil or ceasefire talks. On April 2, Coinbase (COIN) received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to operate as a national trust bank. This is not a press release. It is a structural re-rating event.

Here is what it actually means: a federal trust charter replaces Coinbase's patchwork of 50 state-level licenses with a single nationwide regulatory status, directly positioning the company inside the stablecoin custody and settlement infrastructure being built under the GENIUS Act. The OCC approval lets Coinbase pursue not just digital asset custody, but payments infrastructure under federal supervision — the same infrastructure that Circle, Paxos, BitGo, and Ripple are building in parallel. Coinbase's CLO Paul Grewal confirmed the company is pursuing both the charter and the CLARITY Act legislative track simultaneously, and he is not being subtle about the urgency: the April Senate markup is, per multiple sources, the last realistic legislative window before the political calendar closes.

The stablecoin market now stands at a combined $260 billion in market cap — three times its 2023 level. The GENIUS Act defined stablecoins as payment instruments, not securities. The CLARITY Act would layer a full capital-markets rulebook on top of that foundation. Coinbase's federal charter positions it at the center of both.

Event	Ticker(s)	Pillar Impact	Our Read
Coinbase OCC Trust Charter (Apr 2)	COIN	Digital Finance Rails	Structurally Positive — Hold
CLARITY Act April Markup Window	COIN, CRCL	Digital Finance Rails	Last Realistic Window — Watch
Hormuz Closure, Week 5	VST, CEG, LEU	Power / Nuclear	Thesis Validated — Hold
Fed Holds at 3.5–3.75%, One Cut Projected	All Pillars	Macro	Neutral — No Change
S&P +3.4% / NDX +4.4% Weekly Bounce	NVDA, AVGO, PLTR	AI Infrastructure	Technical, Not Fundamental — Respect But Don't Chase
SCOTUS IEEPA Tariff Ruling (effective rate 13.7%)	Broad Market	Macro	Net Positive for Semiconductor Pillar vs. Prior Risk

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The Rally Is Real. The Conviction Behind It Is Not.

The S&P 500's best week in four months — five consecutive weeks of decline reversed in four shortened sessions — deserves respect but not worship. The recovery was driven by technical oversold conditions and a Mag 7 snapback, not by any fundamental improvement in the earnings or macro outlook. The index remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It is still 5.67% off its January 27 all-time high.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, gave the market exactly nothing new at its March 18 meeting. Rates stay at 3.5–3.75%. The median dot still projects one cut in 2026 — likely in the second half, after Kevin Warsh is expected to take the chair from Powell in May. The Fed revised headline PCE to 2.7% for 2026, up from the 2.4% December projection, explicitly citing the Iran oil shock as the driver. GDP growth was nudged up to 2.4%. In plain language: the Fed now expects hotter inflation and stronger growth simultaneously, and it is not going to do anything about either until it sees sustained directional clarity. That is not a policy that hurts this fund's pillars.

On tariffs: the Supreme Court's invalidation of the IEEPA tariffs earlier this year, followed by Trump's imposition of a 15% Section 122 replacement — now at an effective rate of roughly 13.7%, down from a peak of 27% in April 2025 — is net positive for AI Infrastructure. The risk of a broad 25%-and-higher semiconductor tariff regime that threatened to crater NVDA, AMD, and AVGO supply chains has been significantly reduced by the legal constraint. A narrow 25% tariff on re-exported chips remains in place, but hyperscaler capex commitments — which drive demand for all three names — are not being revised down. The structural build continues.

For PLTR and CRWV, the bounce matters only insofar as it confirms institutional willingness to re-engage growth names on dips. The enterprise AI software thesis at Palantir and the specialized GPU cloud thesis at CoreWeave are not functions of the Hormuz ceasefire calendar. They are functions of hyperscaler capex commitments that have not flinched. We are holding both.

TSLA remains the optionality position it has always been in this portfolio — down roughly 17% in 2026, on track to snap a three-year win streak, buffeted by macro fear and brand pressure. We have not added. We have not sold. That is the correct posture for an optionality allocation.

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What Happens at 8 p.m. Tomorrow Is Not the Question

The honest answer is that we do not know what happens when Tuesday's deadline expires. Trump may escalate massively; he may grant a 48-hour extension; a partial deal may emerge through Pakistan or Oman. Each of those outcomes produces a different oil price on Wednesday morning. None of them changes the five-year structural thesis of this fund by a single basis point.

What we know with high confidence: the world that emerges from this war — regardless of when it ends — will be one that values domestic nuclear baseload, federated digital payment infrastructure, AI-driven defense and enterprise software, and specialized compute more than the world that entered it. We built the portfolio for that world. The war is accelerating its arrival.

Hold the positions. Watch the CLARITY Act markup. And keep your eye on the mid-April Hormuz supply window — that is the real deadline the oil market is pricing, not Tuesday night's press conference.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The Nova X Convergence Fund may hold positions in any securities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This letter reflects the views of the author as of April 6, 2026, and may not be updated to reflect subsequent developments.

Seven days ago we published Stay Calm and Keep Buying and committed to standing behind it. The market has spent the week trying to test that commitment. Brent crude pushed back through $111 a barrel after the President doubled down on his Hormuz ultimatum. OPEC+ responded with a token 206,000 barrel-per-day production hike for May — a number so small it functions as an admission that the cartel cannot fix this. Circle had the worst single session in its public history, falling roughly 20 percent and shedding $5.6 billion of market value on a single draft of the CLARITY Act. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5–3.75 percent, projected exactly one cut for the year, and Chairman Powell told the country that net job creation has effectively gone to zero. Lebanon’s war crossed 1,400 dead.

That is what the headlines say. Here is what they mean.

Nothing on that list invalidates a single one of the five structural pillars in this fund. Several of them strengthen the case. The market is treating each event as evidence to flee. We are treating each event as evidence to stay positioned — and in select names, to add.

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Six numbers. Each one of them, properly read, is a brick in the same structural wall.

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NVDA · AMD · AVGO — The Sector Just Crossed $1 Trillion

NVIDIA is down roughly six percent year-to-date. The headline number is ugly. The underlying picture is the opposite of ugly. The company just reported $215.9 billion in annual revenue — a 65 percent increase year over year — with $62.3 billion of data center revenue in the most recent quarter alone, up 75 percent. Thirty-eight Wall Street analysts now carry a Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $268, implying 52 percent upside from current levels. The Street-high target sits at $352.

This week, the global semiconductor industry is on track to cross the $1 trillion annual sales threshold for the first time in history, with growth tracking 30 percent year over year. Bank of America identified six names as the leaders of that surge. The two it put at the top of the list are NVIDIA and Broadcom — the same two names anchoring the AI hardware pillar of this fund.

If you wanted a single sentence to describe what is happening: the largest capital cycle in industrial history is being repriced lower in real time by investors who are reacting to oil futures. That is a setup, not a warning.

AMD has not flinched. AVGO continues to win custom silicon allocations. The capex commitments of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta — $635 to $665 billion in 2026 — have not been revised down. Not a single hyperscale earnings call this quarter walked back AI infrastructure spend because of the Iran conflict. The buildout is not pausing.

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VST · CEG · LEU — Hormuz Is Doing the Marketing

OPEC+ added 206,000 barrels per day for May. To put that in perspective: the world consumes roughly 102 million barrels per day. The cartel’s response to the largest oil supply disruption in recorded history was a hike of two-tenths of one percent. That is not a fix. That is a confession.

Every minister, CFO, and grid operator on earth just received the same memo: the global hydrocarbon supply chain has no slack and no political insurance. The premium attached to domestic, dispatchable, fuel-secure, carbon-free power did not just go up — it became a board-level mandate at every hyperscaler that operates a data center in North America.

This is exactly what VST, CEG, and LEU exist to monetize. The Constellation–Meta 1.1 GW PPA is not a one-off. It is the prototype contract for the next decade of utility–hyperscaler agreements, and the bidding war for nuclear baseload is going to escalate from here, not de-escalate. Centrus Energy remains the only domestic producer of the enriched uranium fuel those reactors will need, with a contracted backlog stretching to 2040 and a federal mandate to expand it.

The Iran conflict is not a headwind for this pillar. It is the most expensive global advertising campaign in nuclear power’s history, and the bill is being paid by the people who shorted oil stability.

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COIN · CRCL — A Test, Not a Thesis Killer

Circle had its worst session as a public company. The catalyst was a single draft revision of the CLARITY Act that prohibits stablecoin issuers from passing yield to holders — directly or indirectly — which would close the loop that lets Circle share USDC reserve interest with Coinbase as a distribution incentive. The market read it as an existential threat. We do not.

Two facts the tape is ignoring:

One. On April 2, 2026 — the same week — the OCC granted Coinbase conditional approval for a national trust bank charter. That is not a regulator hostile to the industry. That is a regulator inviting the most credible compliance-grade exchange in the United States into the federal banking perimeter. It is the most important pro-crypto regulatory decision of the year, and almost no one has connected it to the CRCL drawdown.

Two. The GENIUS Act is not the CLARITY Act. The Treasury has already begun implementing GENIUS via an 87-page proposed rule. The structural framework that codifies USDC’s legal foundation is already in motion. A draft amendment to a separate bill is exactly that — a draft, in a separate bill, with significant industry pushback already gathering. Citi’s framing remains the right one: this is a scaling setback, not a thesis killer.

Stablecoin supply across the system is still north of $320 billion. Cross-border settlement volumes are still growing. The behavior of USDC during the Q1 crypto drawdown — supply held at $78 billion while broader markets fell 44 percent — remains the single most important data point about whether stablecoins are speculation or infrastructure. They are infrastructure. A 20 percent down day on a regulatory headline does not unwrite that.

For the record: the fund did not sell CRCL into Tuesday’s collapse. The position was held. We view current pricing as an opportunity, not a warning.

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PLTR — Government Spend Doesn’t Care About Brent

The macro narrative this week was risk-off. The PLTR thesis is the most macro-insulated position in the entire fund. Federal contracts do not get cancelled because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Classified enterprise AI deployments are not paused because Powell is non-committal on cuts. The AIP platform is the only product on the market that meets the data governance and audit requirements of intelligence-community-grade customers, and the customer pipeline is independent of the equity tape.

May earnings remain the next major catalyst. Q4 2025’s 70 percent total revenue growth and 137 percent US commercial growth set a bar that the market is currently underestimating PLTR’s ability to clear.

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CRWV — The Backlog Is the Story

$66.8 billion in contracted revenue does not move because oil moves. CoreWeave’s economics are a function of GPU supply, contracted hyperscaler demand, and the spread between compute cost and compute revenue. None of those three variables changed this week. The NVIDIA backstop is unchanged. The capacity ramp is unchanged. The 140 percent revenue growth trajectory is unchanged.

What did change is that other GPU-cloud comparables traded down with the broader risk-off move, compressing the relative valuation of a name with a contracted backlog the rest of the comp set cannot match. We are watching the entry point closely.

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The Fed held. One cut projected for all of 2026. Net job creation effectively zero. PCE still printing 2.7 percent. Powell, in plain language, told the country he is not in a hurry.

This is not a crisis configuration. This is a slow-policy, low-growth, structurally-constrained-supply environment in which the cost of capital stays meaningfully positive and the economy continues to muddle forward. In that environment, the names that win are not the ones that need cheap money to justify their valuations. They are the ones with contracted, multi-year, inflation-protected revenue: hyperscaler capex commitments, 20-year nuclear PPAs, federal AI contracts, $66.8 billion GPU backlogs, and stablecoin reserve interest.

Read that list again. Then read the fund.

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Variable	Last Week (Mar 30)	This Week (Apr 6)	Direction for Thesis
Brent crude	$126 peak, easing	~$111, Hormuz still closed	Strengthens nuclear pillar
OPEC+ supply response	Awaited	+206k bpd (token)	Confirms supply fragility
Hyperscaler AI capex 2026	$635–$665B	Unchanged	No revision — case intact
Stablecoin regulation	GENIUS Act framework	OCC charter for COIN; CLARITY draft volatility	Net positive long-term
Fed posture	Cautious cuts	One cut projected, jobs ~0	Favors contracted-revenue names
Semis sector trajectory	Strong	Crossing $1T in 2026 sales	Confirms AI hardware pillar

Five of six rows are neutral or constructive for the fund. The sixth — stablecoin regulation — introduced near-term volatility but, on net, the regulatory direction in Washington this week was more favorable to compliant, regulated digital finance issuers than it was a week ago. The OCC charter for Coinbase is the most underweighted positive headline of the month.

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We did not sell into this week’s weakness. We are not capitulating. We are not adjusting the structural framework.

What we are doing is exactly what we said we would do last week: holding through the noise, watching for opportunities to add at compressed prices, and treating each high-volatility headline as a stress test of the underlying argument rather than as a reason to abandon it.

None of the five pillars failed this week’s stress test. Several of them passed it harder than they would have in a calm tape, because the events that defined the week — sustained Hormuz closure, an inadequate OPEC response, a Fed that has accepted slower growth, and a regulator quietly handing the most credible exchange in the country a national trust charter — are precisely the events the structural thesis predicted would happen and benefit from.

One week ago we wrote that conviction is not stubbornness, that it is the output of a thesis that has been stress-tested against current reality and held up. The past seven days have been a stress test. The thesis held.

Bottom line: if you held the line last week, hold it harder this week. If you did not have a position last week, the entry is meaningfully better today on at least three of the five pillars — and the structural arguments behind every one of them are stronger, not weaker. We will report back next week.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed represent the opinions of Nova One Capital as of April 6, 2026 and are subject to change without notice. Market data, analyst price targets, and event references in this letter reflect publicly available reporting as of publication.

The past thirty days have tested investor nerve. A joint US-Israeli military strike on Iran on February 28, 2026 triggered the largest disruption to global oil supply in recorded history. The Strait of Hormuz, through which twenty percent of the world's seaborne oil flows, ground to a near standstill. Brent crude peaked above $126 per barrel. Global equity markets repriced. Stagflation replaced soft-landing as the dominant narrative. Portfolios bled.

For most investors, this is a crisis. For Nova One Capital, it is a confirmation.

We write this not as reassurance. We write it as a public record of conviction. A document that we intend to stand behind, that we will be measured against, and that we believe — twelve and thirty-six months from now — will be recognized as having read the moment correctly.

The five structural themes underpinning the Nova X Convergence Fund are not hypotheses. They are observable realities, measured in hundreds of billions of committed capital, signed contracts, federal legislation, and physical infrastructure. The market sell-off has temporarily obscured that signal. It has not changed it.

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Markets are extraordinarily efficient at pricing the present. They are far less efficient at pricing structural transformations that play out over years rather than quarters. This gap — between what the market prices today and what the world will look like in three years — is where we operate.

The Iran conflict has created genuine macro disruption. The IEA has called it "the greatest global energy security challenge in history." That is not hyperbole. Twenty percent of global seaborne oil was cut off at the source. LNG supplies from Qatar fell by over twenty percent. Commodity markets reacted violently, and broad equities followed.

None of that changes what the next three years look like for AI infrastructure, nuclear power, or digital financial rails.

Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta have collectively committed to spending between $635 billion and $665 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone. That is a 67 percent increase over 2025 levels. These are not aspirational announcements made in bull market euphoria. They are binding capital allocation decisions made by four of the most financially disciplined organizations on earth — made after the conflict began, on earnings calls where analysts pushed hard on whether spending would slow. It will not slow.

What the macro environment has done is create a temporary disconnection between price and value across the names we hold. That disconnection, historically, is where the best long-term returns are made.

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The Nova X Convergence Fund is constructed around five structural megatrends where multiple independent tailwinds converge on the same names at the same time. No name is held for macro exposure alone. Every position earns its place through a specific, falsifiable thesis.

Names	Weight	Thesis
NVDA · AMD · AVGO	Highest	AI chip supercycle. NVDA owns the CUDA moat. AMD is the highest conviction value in the portfolio. AVGO is the custom silicon architect for every hyperscaler.
VST · CEG · LEU	Significant	Nuclear power is the only carbon-free solution to AI's 24/7 baseload requirement. The Iran conflict has made domestic, dispatchable clean energy more valuable, not less.
COIN · CRCL	Meaningful	Stablecoin legislation is codifying the digital dollar. USDC supply held at $78B while broader crypto fell 44%. This is infrastructure, not speculation.
PLTR	Targeted	Enterprise AI operating system for classified and regulated environments. 70% Q4 revenue growth. 137% US commercial growth. Trimmed to right-size valuation, not conviction.
CRWV	Emerging	Specialized GPU cloud with $66.8B contracted backlog. NVIDIA-backstopped at $87.20. The margin between GPU cost and compute revenue at scale is extraordinary.
TSLA · MU	Optionality	Long-duration binary bets retained at measured size. Robotaxi/Optimus and HBM memory supercycle. High asymmetry, managed position size.

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AI Chips and Hardware — NVDA · AMD · AVGO

Every dollar spent building the AI economy passes through semiconductors. There is no version of the AI future that does not run on chips. The question is not whether the infrastructure buildout continues. It is who captures it.

The thesis across all three names is simple: approximately $450 billion of 2026 hyperscaler capex is directed at AI-specific infrastructure. That capital flows through chips. We are positioned across the three names best placed to capture that flow at different points in the stack.

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Nuclear and Power Infrastructure — VST · CEG · LEU

Here is a fact the market has not fully priced: the AI buildout has a hard physical constraint that chips cannot solve. It needs electricity. Continuous, dispatchable, carbon-free electricity, at a scale the existing US grid was never designed to deliver.

A single hyperscale campus can consume 500 megawatts or more. The US grid has no meaningful spare capacity. Renewables cannot provide the 24/7 baseload that AI workloads require — the sun goes down and the wind stops, but the inference servers do not. There is one technology that solves this cleanly: nuclear.

The hyperscalers already know this. Constellation Energy's 20-year, 1.1 GW power purchase agreement with Meta starting in 2027 is the template for what AI power contracts will look like for the next generation. Microsoft's deal to restart Three Mile Island under a 20-year PPA is another data point in the same direction. These are not green-washing announcements. These are legally binding, decade-spanning commitments to nuclear baseload power because the hyperscalers have determined there is no alternative.

Here is the geopolitical overlay that the market is missing: the Iran conflict — the one event causing the current sell-off — directly strengthens the nuclear thesis. When the largest oil supply disruption in history reminds every government and corporation on earth that fossil fuel supply chains are fragile, the premium attached to domestic, fuel-secure, dispatchable clean power rises. VST, CEG, and LEU are direct beneficiaries of the very event creating short-term volatility in the broader market.

President Trump's executive orders directing a quadrupling of US nuclear generating capacity by 2050 codify the policy support. The contracts are signed. The infrastructure is operating. The demand is accelerating. This is not a prediction — it is a supply chain that is already executing.

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Digital Finance Rails — COIN · CRCL

The stablecoin market passed $320 billion in March 2026. Adjusted transaction volumes grew more than 90 percent year-over-year. Visa now supports stablecoin-linked cards across more than 50 countries. The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, created the first comprehensive federal framework for dollar-backed stablecoins. The US government has explicitly chosen private-sector regulated issuers to lead the digitization of the dollar.

This is not a crypto thesis. This is a financial infrastructure thesis.

A recent draft of the Clarity Act spooked the market with proposed yield restrictions on stablecoins. The sell-off was significant and, in our view, overdone. Citi described the market reaction as a "scaling setback, not a thesis killer." Regulatory clarity, even imperfect clarity, is a long-run positive for compliant, regulated issuers. It raises the barrier to entry and codifies the advantage of incumbents like Circle.

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AI Software and Platforms — PLTR

Palantir is the software layer that sits above the AI hardware stack and transforms raw compute into enterprise decision intelligence. It is not a chatbot. It is not a wrapper on top of a foundation model. It is a purpose-built AI operating system for organizations that operate in classified, regulated, and high-stakes environments — the most defensible and highest-value segment of enterprise AI.

Q4 2025 results were exceptional: 70 percent total revenue growth. 137 percent US commercial revenue growth. A government contract base that provides structural revenue floors no startup can replicate. The AIP platform is winning enterprise deployments not because it is the cheapest option, but because it is the only platform that can handle the data governance, classification, and decision-audit requirements of serious institutions.

The position has been right-sized from a peak weight that introduced valuation-compression risk to a weight that preserves full upside participation while managing concentration. This was discipline, not doubt. Trimmed to a targeted core weight, Palantir remains one of the highest-conviction positions in the fund. May 2026 earnings are the next major catalyst.

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AI Infrastructure — CRWV

CoreWeave is the fund's highest-conviction emerging position and the name most investors have not yet fully understood. It is not a general-purpose cloud provider. It is a specialized GPU cloud, built from the ground up for AI workloads, operating in a segment that AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud are structurally unable to serve as efficiently.

The investment case rests on three independent pillars: a $66.8 billion contracted revenue backlog with large hyperscalers, 140 percent revenue growth, and a NVIDIA backstop investment that provides both a structural floor and the most powerful endorsement possible from the most important company in the AI supply chain.

The fund is building this position in tranches, with the second tranche contingent on Q1 2026 earnings execution in May. The unit economics of specialized GPU cloud are among the most interesting in the technology sector. CoreWeave captures the spread between what NVIDIA charges for GPUs and what hyperscalers pay for AI compute time, at scale, with a locked-in backlog that gives extraordinary revenue visibility.

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Intellectual honesty matters more than comfort. So here is the unvarnished view:

There may be more downside. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is not resolved. Inflation could remain sticky. The Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts. Earnings multiples across growth names could compress further. The second quarter of 2026 could be worse for markets than the first. We are not calling a bottom. We never do.

Consider the math of structural convergences at depressed entry prices. AI chip demand that doubles every eighteen months, hitting names already at discounted valuations. Nuclear power contracts with decades of locked revenue, priced as utilities rather than infrastructure monopolies. A digital dollar settlement layer that grew transaction volume 90 percent year-over-year during a crypto bear market.

Investors who look back at March 2026 will not remember the precise bottom. They will remember whether they held their thesis when it was uncomfortable to do so. The ones who did will have the better story.

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• AI Capex Reversal. If hyperscalers simultaneously conclude that AI ROI does not justify the current spend trajectory, the chip thesis collapses. We assign low probability. All four major hyperscalers are already reporting measurable revenue improvements from AI. The spending is self-reinforcing because early movers are seeing returns.
• Geopolitical Escalation. The Iran conflict is the most significant geopolitical event in decades. Further expansion — particularly anything affecting Taiwan or the broader semiconductor supply chain — would introduce new risk to the chip pillar. To date, TSMC and the semiconductor supply chain have not been materially affected.
• Regulatory Uncertainty in Digital Assets. The Clarity Act's proposed yield restrictions created real volatility. Crypto regulatory risk remains asymmetric. The digital finance pillar is sized to survive a negative regulatory outcome while still delivering meaningful upside if the thesis plays out.
• Nuclear Timeline Risk. The nuclear renaissance is real but measured in years, not quarters. The fund is positioned in operating capacity and fuel supply, not construction-stage projects. Contracted revenue backlogs provide visibility regardless of new build timelines.
• Valuation Compression. Growth multiples across the portfolio remain elevated even after the sell-off. A prolonged risk-off environment could compress them further. Position sizing and cash reserves are maintained precisely to manage this scenario.

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The fund models three scenarios across a 5-year horizon. The 30-percent-plus CAGR target requires the bull case. The base case requires only partial execution across two to three pillars. The bear case requires simultaneous failure of all five structural themes.

Scenario	Odds	5-Yr CAGR	Required Condition
Bear	~20%	-3% to +5%	AI capex reversal + nuclear stall + crypto winter — all simultaneously
Base	~55%	+14% to +22%	2–3 of 5 pillars deliver on thesis over 5 years
Bull	~25%	+30% to +45%	All five pillars converge. Geopolitical tailwinds persist.

The asymmetry is clear. Bear downside is modest. Bull upside is generational. Base case is competitive with any diversified growth portfolio. The fund is constructed around this asymmetric distribution, not around minimizing tracking error to a benchmark.

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Every position in the Nova X Convergence Fund is held because of a structural argument measured in years, not quarters. The arguments for AI infrastructure, nuclear power, digital finance rails, enterprise AI software, and specialized GPU cloud are not weakened by the Iran conflict. Most of them are strengthened by it.

The hyperscalers are not pausing AI capex because of Hormuz. The data center power problem is not getting easier because oil is expensive. Stablecoins are not becoming less useful because BTC is down. Palantir's government contracts are not at risk from a macro selloff. CoreWeave's contracted backlog does not evaporate because markets are fearful.

Conviction is not stubbornness. It is the output of a thesis that has been stress-tested against current reality and held up. The fund has defined the specific conditions that would invalidate each position. None of those conditions are present today.

When markets give us lower prices on names where our conviction has not changed, the response is not to sell. It is patience. It is discipline. And in select cases, it is the deliberate addition of capital.

That is what Nova One Capital is doing. We believe the record will show we were right.

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed represent the opinions of Nova One Capital as of March 30, 2026 and are subject to change without notice.